J. Appl. Environ. Biol. Sci., 8(5)41-48, 2018 | ISSN: 2090-4274 |
© 2018, TextRoad Publication | Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Sciences |
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DepartmentofStatisticsUniversityOfSindh Jamshoro,Pakistan
Received:December12,2017 Accepted:March6,2018
Pakistan isan agriculturalcountrywith largescaleLivestocksectorPopulation,though thereislack ofawarenessabout theimportanceoflivestockanddairyfarming.ThepurposeofthisstudyistofindtheTrendandRateofGrowth of livestockpopulation and alsofindout themilkproduction andproblemsofdairyfarmersin Sindh.Thestudyof livestockpopulation wasbasedupon thelivestockCensus2006andlivestockpopulation upto2016.Methodoflinear regression and descriptive statistical methods are used. Livestock population of Sindh has steadily increased. CompoundAnnualGrowth Rate(CAGR)oflivestockpopulation in Sindh foryears2006-2016isasunder:Cattle 2.397%,Buffaloes2.715%,Sheep0.65%,Goats2.591%andCamels2.182%.BuffaloesandGoatsshowedrelatively high growth rate. Percentage distribution of livestock population from the years 2006 to 2016 recorded: Goats increased40.46%to41.49%,Buffaloes23.62%to24.52%,Cattle22.29%to22.43%,Sheepdecreasedto10.65%from 12.74%andCamelsdecreasedto0.88%from0.89%. Averagemilkproduction of dairyfarmsperBuffaloperdayis 9.84 liter,averagemilkprice/literis61.9rupees,averagemilkrevenuepermonth is17597rupees,averagecostof milkpermonth is13087rupeesandaveragenetprofitpermonth is4507rupees.Bytheresultofprimarydatawith respecttobetterfarmmanagementandproblemsofdairyfarmersitisconcludedthatonlyafewdairyfarmerskeep recordofdairyfarm,theydon’t usemodern dairytechniquesandtheyhave constraintsin milk marketing. Dairy farmersfacemanyproblemslikenoveterinaryorloan facilityandsubsidyisgiven.Workershaveneedoftraining, Duetohigh costofmilkproduction shortageoffodderalsooccurs.Livestockin Sindh can bedevelopedbyfinancing &providingtreatment,Vaccination facilitiesandpropereducation tothedairyfarmers. KEYWORDS: CompoundGrowthRate,Empiricalstudy,Livestock Population,PercentageDistribution and Trend
line.
Pakistan isan agriculturalcountrywithan extensivelivestock sector,itiswidelypracticed bypoorpeopleof thecountryand keepinglivestock isthewayofliferatherthanacommercialactivity.Unlikethebig landowning crop farmers, the livestock farmers areneither vocal nor active and thus theyare perhaps the most influential disadvantaged groupinthecountry. Domestication ofthelivestock isoneoftheoldest achievementsofhuman beingsithasmadetheirlivesmoreformativeeasyandsecures[13].In Pakistan therearebig farmsforkeeping livestock. Livestock provides essential items offood in the form ofmilk, meat and eggs. Livestock contributes 11.3%GDP ofPakistan. Total number oflivestock population in 2008was 154.3million [11]. Thereare seven popular type of livestock found in Pakistan including Buffaloes, Cow, Sheep, Goats, Camels, Equine (Horse, Donkey,and Mules)and poultry[15].Theyarekeptformultiplepurposes.PakistaniCowsaregenerallyused for droughtpurpose,GoatsandSheeparedomesticatedformeatproduction with hair/woolandformilkasby-products. Camelsarekeptformanypurposesin thedesert,aired areasand mountainsregionsofthecountry[13].InPakistan therearebig farmsforlivestock. Pakistanisworld'sthirdlargestmilk producercountrybutthetotalmilk productionisnotsufficientfordomestic need.Thereisasteadyincreaseinmilk productionfromthelastseveralyears,drymilkproductsofvalueabout1.1 billion dollarsareimported which areburdenon theeconomyofPakistan [6].Human populationofthecountryhas exceeded up to 70 million recently, which was predicted to reach 76 million by 2020. According to current populationincreaseinPakistandemand forfood hascreated theneed toproducemoremilk[6].Majorityofthe population of Sindh is engaged directly or indirectly in livestock farming and agriculture. Landless farmers particularlydepend livestock farmsforthecompletionoftheirbasicneedssuchasmilk,butter,gheeetc.where morethan 75%ofruralpopulation practiceslivestock farming [2].Livestock population ofSindh can bestudiedfor multiplereasons[18]:
1)In agricultural after PunjabSindh ismajor province, production ofmost ofthe crops in Sindh ishigherand populationoflivestock hasalsoincreased tohigh Rateofgrowthascompared toKPKand Baluchistan [18]. 2)In Sindhthereissufficientnumberofsmalland mediumfarmersandalargenumberofthesefarmersarepoorso theykeeptheirlivestock fordroughtandmilkpurposes[18]. Thepopulation ofallmajorspeciesoflivestock cattle,Buffaloes,SheepandGoatshasconstantlyincreasingover theyears.Howevergrowth rateisdifferentforvariousspecies.Growth rateofBuffaloishigherthan cattle.In fact, in1955when thefirstlivestock censuscarriedout,cattlepopulation wasmuch high then ofbuffaloes[18].Cattlein Pakistanhavemainlybeenused asdroughtanimalinaddition tomilk production.Incontrast,thebuffaloisthemain dairyanimalofPakistan,anditspopulation continued togrowatalmost1.75timesthegrowth rateofcattle.Thus, wherepopulationofcattlein 1955was172percentmorethanthatbuffaloes,thebuffalo-populationiscurrently higher than cattle [2]. Present studyhas recorded Trendsand Percentage Distribution of Livestock Population, compared dataoflivestock population andanalyzed compound growth rateoflivestock population in Sindh from year2006 to2016.
Aims andObjectives of the study 1.Toanalysisthegrowth trendandpercentagedistribution offivekindsoflivestock population in Sindh fromthe
year(2006-2016). 2.Tocomparethedifferentlivestock populationwith totalPopulationinSindh fromyear(2006-2015).
*Corresponding Author: Shah PisandChandio,DepartmentofStatisticsUniversityOfSindhJamshoro,Pakistan. Emailaddress:shahpasand77@gmail.com
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3.Tostudytheannualcompoundgrowthrateoflivestock population in Sindh fromyear(2006-2016). 4.Toanalysisthemilkproduction factorsinruralareasofSind(CasestudyofDadu district).
Livestock inSindhplayasignificantroleinthelifeofcommonmankeeping livestock isthewayoftheirlife.In ruralandurban areasofSindh dairyfarmersfacetoomanydifficultiesin theproduction andsaleofmilk.Dairy farmershaveneithervaccination and veterinaryfacilitiesareavailable.Dairyfarmershaveneed ofsubsidyandloan facilitiestodeveloptheirdairyfarms.Thereisgapofcommunication betweenthestakeholdersofdairyfarmsand government. Theproblem statement ofthispaper isempirical studyofthelivestock population,toevaluatethe problemsofdairyfarmerstothegovernmentandanalysisthemilk productionfactorin Sindh.
Thisstudywillbenefitthestakeholdersoflivestock,dairyfarmersand commonman in Sindh.Theresearch work willbehelpfulforthegovernmentin solvingtheproblemsofdairyfarmers.Furthermoreproblemofbetterfarm managementisalsohighlightedin thisresearch whichisnecessaryforthesufficientmilk productionandprofit.This research willalsohelpfulforincreasein livestock population in Sindh.
H.MSpicerandL.A(1994)describethatpoormanagementfactorwith referencetokeepingrecordoftheanimalis animportantaspectand can reduceorincreasetheprofitabilityofadairyfarm.Furthermorethequalityoffeed is very considerable among farms. It can create a positive difference if farmers develop an understanding about different managerial practices and techniques of the dairy enterprise. In the connection to his research it was indicated thattheageofmilking cattleisoneofthemostimportantfactorin dairybusiness[15]. Bernard L.Ervin (2006)describestheroleofdairyfarmhuman resource;hefocuseshumanresourcemodel or paradigms.Headdedthatpeoplearepreciousassetofdairybusiness,trainedandhonesthuman resourceisasign of successand profit,butatsameplacedishonestanduntrained human resourcecan damaged thebusinessand give hugeeconomicloss.Thenatureofdairybusinessiscomplex;alotofactivitiesareperformed bydairyfarmersin everydaydairyfarminglife, and each activityinvolvesalot ofamountorcapitalsohonestandtrainedhuman resourcecan savepreciousassetand capital.Bernardfurthersurveyed thatHRMofdairyfarmmanagementmust requiredifferenttrainingsrelatingtofarmmanagementand buildabattleenvironmenton dairyfarm[15]. Waheed Buriro(2005)indicatesthecomponentofexternalenvironmentofdairyfarminglikepriceadjustmentof milk,availabilityoflabor,competition in milkmarket.Hefound thatexternalenvironmentplaysavitalrolein farm managementand isessentialingredientin successofdairyenterprise,externalenvironmentofdairyfarmdealswith priceadjustment,thepricing ofmilkisacomplicated phenomenonin Sindhmilk marketasmilkissold in toopen milkmarketwherepricesarefluctuatedandaccordingtothequalityanddemandandsupplylevelofmilkpricesare adjusted everyday[3].Oneliterofmilkissoldin anopen marketfromRs.35 toRs.55;theothermilk marketis wholesalemarketwheremiddleman orwholesalerbuysmilkfromdairyfarms.Theopen milkmarketiscovered bysmall farmers whereas large and commercial dairyfarmers sale their milk at wholesalers whobuymilk on competitiveratesfromdairyfarmers,themilkisboughton lowratesand being sold tocustomersonhigh prices especiallyin cityretailmilkmarketthechargesofmilkarehigh.Burirosuggeststhatwhichpricingsystemshould havebeen controlled bygovernment wherefarmersreceivereasonablepriceofmilk and customer buymilk on reasonablepricein thisregardhesuggested thatgovernmentmayprovidesubsidy[15]. BarbaraDart(2009)discussestheprincipleofintegratedDairyFarmManagementIDFMsheconstructed amodel forasuccessfuldairyfarming and suggested developingafullplan forrunning adairybusinesssuccessfully.The researcheremphasizesthatallfarmsshoulddevelopaplan becausefarmisakindoffirmsorenterprisethatinvolve allkindsofbusinessactivitieslikeinvestment,risk,lossandprofit.Thefurtherfindingsweresubmitted regardinga plan that it starts with mission statement or primaryplan, business vision admission, longer short terms goals, transitionalfarmatacticaltostrategicmind set,sheconstructed amodelofactionofplancontaining distributionof dairytasksnamelyresponsibleforaccomplishmentofthedairyroll[15v].
Research Design
Thisempiricalstudyconsistsupon thefivekindsoflivestockpopulation in Sindh includingCattle,Buffaloes,Sheep, GoatsandCamels.Timesampleofthisdatais10yearsthisstudyispaneldata.Samplesizeofdairyfarmsis85from DadudistrictofSindh andforthestudyofcompoundgrowth rateformulaofannualcompoundgrowth rateisapplied.
Quantitativeresearchmethod isapplied inboth primaryandsecondarydata.Fortheanalysisofgrowthtrend,linear trendmethod isused andseparatetrend linesaredrawnforeach kind oflivestock fromyear(2006-2016).
Thisisdeductiveresearchapproach,wecheck alreadytheexisting hypothesisexaminethespecificoutcomeofthe enquirybycollectionofquantitativedataandusescientificprinciples.
Research philosophyofthisstudyispositivismbecausetheempiricalmethodsareused forquantitativeanalysisand numberscan explaintherelationshipbetweenthevariables.Equationoftrend lineoflivestock populationinSindh is drawn from the year 2006 to 2016. Percentage distribution and annual compound growth rate of livestock population with totalpopulationiscalculated fromtheyear2006to2016andcomparison oflivestock population with total population is calculated from the year (2006-2010) and (2010-2015). Secondary data of livestock populationwascollected fromlivestock departmentofSindhand othersources.Quantitativeanalysisand numbers can explain therelationshipbetweenthevariables.Toanalysisthemilk production,price,cost,revenueofmilk, dairy farm management and problems of dairy farmers, our tool of data collection was self administered questionnairewhich assessed basicknowledgeaboutdairyfarmersanddairyfarming.Questionnairewasdistributed among the 85respondents(dairyfarmers) ofthe selected area andtheywere asked tofill it according totheir knowledgewithoutguess,collected datawasanalyzed bystatisticalsoftware.Reliabilityand validityofthedatawas alsodetermined.
Inthisstudyourbasictoolofresearchwasselfadministered questionnaireand variousstatisticaltechniqueswere applied for analysisthedata. ComputerandStatistical softwareSPSSV-22, Microsoft Excel, EViews9.5vwere applied forthedescription andinterpretation ofdatarequired tablesandgraphswereconstructed andresultwas displayed ongraphs.
Table-iLivestockPopulation of Sindhfrom 2006 to 2016(In 000 Numbers).
SPECIES | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cattle * | 6925 | 7091 | 7261 | 7435 | 7613 | 7796 | 7983 | 8174 | 8370 | 8571 | 8776 |
Buffaloes | 7340 | 7539 | 7744 | 7954 | 8170 | 8392 | 8620 | 8854 | 9094 | 9341 | 9594 |
Sheep | 3959 | 3984 | 4010 | 4036 | 4062 | 4089 | 4115 | 4142 | 4169 | 4196 | 4169 |
Goats | 12572 | 12898 | 13232 | 13575 | 13927 | 14288 | 14658 | 15038 | 15428 | 15827 | 16237 |
Camels | 278 | 284 | 291 | 297 | 303 | 310 | 317 | 324 | 331 | 338 | 345 |
Source:LivestockCensus2006andEstimatedLivestockPopulationofSindh(2006-2016),Estimatedfiguresare basedoninthecensusgrowth rateoflivestockcensus1996&2006. *= IncludesBullocks,Cowsandyoungstock.
Graph-iTrendlines, showing the Growth ofCattle, Buffalo, Sheep, Goat andCamelPopulation in Sindh from 2006 To 2016(In 000 Numbers).
Cattlepopulation revealed anincreasing trend,EquationofLinearTrend (y)=mx +b;Y=185x+6707.Heremx= 185x is Slope (Rate of Change times X)and b=6707 (Y-intercept Constant). Buffaloes population revealed an increasing trend, Y= 225.2x+7070 Here 185x is Slope, and 7070 Y-intercept. Sheep population revealed an increasingtrend,Y=24x+3940Here24x isSlope,and3940 Y-intercept.Goatspopulation revealed an increasing trend,Y=366.2x+12137Here366.2xisSlope,and12137isY-intercept.Camelspopulation revealed an increasing trend,Y=7.127x+268.7,Here7.127x isSlopeand 268.7 isY-intercept.R2Valueindicatesthatallthesevariables havestrong explanatorypower.
Table-ii Percentage distribution of livestock Population in Sindh from 2006to 2016.
YEARS | Cattle | Buffaloes | Sheep | Goats | Camel |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | 22.29 | 23.62 | 12.74 | 40.46 | 0.89 |
2007 | 22.3 | 23.71 | 12.53 | 40.56 | 0.89 |
2008 | 22.32 | 23.8 | 12.32 | 40.67 | 0.89 |
2009 | 22.33 | 23.89 | 12.12 | 40.77 | 0.89 |
2010 | 22.34 | 23.98 | 11.92 | 40.87 | 0.89 |
2011 | 22.35 | 24.06 | 11.72 | 40.97 | 0.89 |
2012 | 22.37 | 24.15 | 11.53 | 41.07 | 0.89 |
2013 | 22.37 | 24.24 | 11.34 | 41.16 | 0.89 |
2014 | 22.38 | 24.32 | 11.15 | 41.26 | 0.89 |
2015 | 22.39 | 24.41 | 10.96 | 41.35 | 0.88 |
2016 | 22.43 | 24.52 | 10.65 | 41.49 | 0.88 |
Source:LivestockCensus(2006),EstimatedLivestockPopulationofSindh(2006-2016).
PercentdistributionofCattlepopulation intheCensusyear2006was22.29%whichwasincreased to22.43%in 2016,in theyears2012and2013.Percentdistribution ofBuffalopopulation in theCensusyear2006was23.62% which wasincreasedto24.52in 2016.PercentdistributionofSheeppopulationin theCensusyear2006was12.74% whichwasdecreased to10.96intheyear2016tototallivestock population.PercentdistributionofGoatspopulation intheCensusyear2006 was40.46%which wasincreased 41.49%in theyear2016. PercentdistributionofCamel population in the Census year 2006 was 0.89% which was decreased by0.88%, in the year 2016 to the total livestock population percent.
Table-iii Comparison of Livestock Population in Sindh for the Years (2006 -2010) and (2010 -2015).
SPECIES | 2006 | 2010 | 2015 | % Diff: 2006 to 2010 | % Diff: 2010 to 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cattle | 6925 | 7613 | 8571 | 9.93 | 12.58 |
Buffaloes | 7340 | 8170 | 9341 | 11.3 | 14.33 |
Sheep | 3959 | 4062 | 4196 | 2.6 | 3.29 |
Goats | 12572 | 13927 | 15827 | 10.77 | 13.59 |
Camels | 278 | 303 | 338 | 8.99 | 11.55 |
Source:LivestockCensus(2006),EstimatedLivestockPopulationofSindh(2006-2015).
Fortheyears(2006-2010)PercentagedifferenceofCattlepopulationwas9.93%&fortheyears(2010-2015)was 12.58%.PercentagedifferenceofBuffalopopulationb/wtheyears(2006-2010)was11.3%&fortheyears(20102015)was14.33%.PercentagedifferenceofSheeppopulation b/wyears(2006-2010)was2.6%&b/wtheyears (2010-2015) was 3.29%. Percentage difference ofGoats population b/w years (2006-2010) was 10.77%&b/w (2010-2015)%agedifferencewas13.59%.PercentagedifferenceofCamelpopulationb/wyears(2006-2010)was 8.99%&b/wtheyears(2010-2015)%agedifferencewas11.55%
Graph-ii Comparison of Livestock Population in Sindh for the Years (2006 -2010) and (2010 -2015)
Source:LivestockCensus(2006),EstimatedLivestockPopulationofSindh(2006-2015).
SPECIES | Livestock Census 1996 | Livestock Census 2006 | Livestock Pop.2016 | CAGR 1996-2006 | CAGR 2006-2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cattle | 5464 | 6925 | 8776 | 2.3978 | 2.3971 |
Buffaloes | 5615 | 7340 | 9595 | 2.7151 | 2.7152 |
Sheep | 3710 | 3959 | 4224 | 0.6517 | 0.65 |
Goats | 9734 | 12572 | 16237 | 2.5914 | 2.5912 |
Camels | 225 | 278 | 345 | 2.1377 | 2.1827 |
Source:LivestockCensus(1996&2006),EstimatedLivestockPopulationofSindh2016.
Fortheyears(1996-2006),PopulationofBuffaloesgrewatanannualcompoundgrowthrateof2.7151%,Goats 2.591%,Cattleat2.3987%,Camel2.137%andSheep0.6517%. For theyears(2006-2016),Population ofBuffaloesgrewmoreatan annualcompoundgrowth rateof2.7152%, Goats2.5912%,Cattleat2.3971%,Camel2.1827%and Sheep0.65%.
RESULTS (STATISTICAL ANALYSISOF DAIRY FARMING INSINDH)
Category | Minimum Value | Maximum Value | Average Value |
---|---|---|---|
Milkin liters per day | 8 | 12 | 9.84 |
Milkin liters per month | 210 | 405 | 284 |
Price per liter | 50 | 70 | 61.9 |
Milkrevenue per month | 12600 | 26325 | 17597 |
Cost per month | 9076 | 18900 | 13087 |
Profit per month | 575 | 13075 | 4507 |
Source:surveydataMay2017.
Averagemilk productionofadairyfarmperBuffalo/dayis9.84liter,averagemilk price/literis61.9rupees,average milkrevenuepermonth is17597rupees,averagecostofmilkpermonth is13087rupeesandaveragenetprofitper month is4507rupees.Bytheanalysisofprimarydatacollectedfromdairyfarmersitisconcludedthattheindependent variablesrevenuepermonth andcostpermonth aresignificantlyrelatedtothedependentvariableprofitpermonth, thesevariablesstatisticallyexplain thevariabilityofnetprofit;P-valuesofthevariablesare<0.05.Butindependent variablesmilksoldpermonthandmilkpriceperliterarenotsignificantlyrelatedtoprofitpermonth,thesevariables statisticallydon’texplain thevariabilityofnetprofit,P-valuesofthevariablesare>0.05.R-squaredvalueimpliesthe explanatorypowerofthemodel,value0.999indicatesthatthismodelhasstrongexplanatorypower.
Table-vi Regression Analysis
Dependent Variable: PROFIT_MONTH | ||
Method: Least Squares | ||
Date: 02/10/18 Time: 16:17 | ||
Sample: 1 85 | ||
Included observations: 85 | ||
Variable Coefficient | Std. Error t-Statistic | Prob. |
C -158.1940 | 203.1723 -0.778620 | 0.4385 |
MILK_SOLD_MONTH 0.513148 | 0.669774 0.766152 | 0.4458 |
PRICE_LITER 2.247481 | 3.283125 0.684555 | 0.4956 |
REV_MONTH 0.992733 | 0.010852 91.47676 | 0.0000 |
COST_MONTH -1.000083 | 0.001203 -831.2813 | 0.0000 |
R-squared 0.999951 | Meandependentvar | 4507.529 |
Adjusted R-squared 0.999949 | S.D.dependentvar | 2370.965 |
S.E. of regression 16.94980 | Akaikeinfocriterion | 8.555412 |
Sum squared reside 22983.67 | Schwarzcriterion | 8.699097 |
Log likelihood -358.6050 | Hannan-Quinncriter. | 8.613206 |
F-statistic 410884.0 | Durbin-Watsonstat | 2.001464 |
Prob (F-statistic) 0.000000 | ||
Source:surveydatamay2017
Graph-iii Showing Results RegardingBetter Management of Dairy Farms.
Source:surveydatamay2017
Bytheanalysisofprimarydatacollected fromrespondents(dairyfarmers)ithasanalyzed that75%dairyfarmers don’t keep record ofincome and expenditure, 59%workershave knowledge about dairyfarming, 84%owners agreed that workers must behonest &trained, 71%agreed that fodder andfresh water tanksmust be checked regularly,59%respondentsagreed foruse appropriatemarketing channelisprofitable,54%respondentsagreed for useofmodern dairytechniquesbutnotuse,77%respondentsagreed thatconstraintsinmilk marketing ismajor problemwhichdecreasesmilk revenue,65%respondentsdisagreed for convertofmilkintootherproducts,5059% respondents strongly refused if they have any loan facility available, 85% farmers strongly demanded for the availabilityofloan (Graph-iii).
Graph-iv Results Regarding Problems of DairyFarmers.
Source:surveydatamay2017.
By the results shown on (Graph-iv) 64% respondents disagreed if they have any support of NGO’s 25%were unknown,76%farmersdemand forsubsidyorfacilitytoincreasemilk production,54%dairyfarmersstated that thereisnotanysubsidygivenbygovernment,59% disagreed forhaving anytreatmentorvaccination facility,82% farmersmanageownveterinarydoctor,72%farmerwereundecided &disagreed iftheymeeteachothertodiscuss farmissues,80%farmersagreed thatworkerscareforproperhygienein milk processing,66%respondentsrefused forkeepingrented animals,75%dairyfarmersdisagreed thatbusinessofdairyfarmiseasyandprofitableand only 39%respondentsweresatisfied inthisbusiness.
Graph-v Results Regarding the workers atDairy Farms.
Source:SurveyData,May2017.
Bytheresultof(Graph-v)thisisanalyzed that65%workersagreedtheyhaveneedoftraining,only36%workers wereexperienced,only27%workershaveknowledgeaboutthediseases,only29%workerswereknownaboutthe techniquesofincreasing milk,only36%workersweresatisfied fortheirwages,61%workersagreed thatproduction ofmilkissufficient,53%workerswereagreed thatregularvisitofownerisimportantand40%workersagreed for shortageoffodderoccursatthedairyfarms.
Presentstudyrecorded increasing Trendand PercentageDistributionofLivestock Population inSindhduring the years2006to2016.TheCattlepopulationrevealed an increasingtrend,Percentdistribution ofCattlepopulation in theCensusyear2006 was22.29%whichwasincreased to22.43%in year2016,intheyears2012 and2013percent distributionremainedsame22.37 (Table-ii).TheBuffalopopulation displayed an increasing trendfromyear2006 to 2016;Percentdistribution ofBuffalopopulation in theCensusyear2006 was23.62%which wasincreased to24.52 in theyear2016.TheSheeppopulation displayed an increasingtrendfromyear2006to2016,Percentdistribution ofSheeppopulation in theCensusyear2006was12.74%which wasdecreased in theyear2016 percentdistribution ofSheep population was 10.65%tothetotal Livestock Population in Sindh. The Goatspopulation revealed an increasing trend from year 2006 to2016;Percentdistribution ofGoatspopulation in theCensusyear 2006 was 40.46%whichwasincreased 41.49%in theyear2016tothetotalLivestock PopulationinSindh.Camelpopulation alsoexplained anincreasing trend fromyear2006 to2015;PercentdistributionofCamelpopulationin theCensus year2006was0.89%which wasincreased to0.90%,in theyear2016tothetotallivestock Populationin Sindh.The comparativestudyshowsfluctuation in livestock population in Sindh fromtheyears(2006-2010)and(2010-2015). Fortheyears(2006-2010)PercentagedifferenceofCattlepopulationwas9.93%&fortheyears(2010-2015)was 12.58%.PercentagedifferenceofBuffalopopulationb/wtheyears(2006-2010)was11.3%&fortheyears(20102015)was14.33%.PercentagedifferenceofSheeppopulation b/wyears(2006-2010)was2.6%&b/wtheyears (2010-2015) was 3.29%. Percentage difference ofGoats population b/w years (2006-2010) was 10.77%&b/w (2010-2015)%agedifferencewas13.59%.PercentagedifferenceofCamelpopulationb/wyears(2006-2010)was 8.99%&b/wtheyears(2010-2015)%agedifferencewas11.55%(Table-iii). Thechangeisnoticed incompoundgrowthrateoflivestock populationinSindhfromyear(2006-2016).Thechange in composition oflivestock population in Sindh wasduetomuch high growth rateofdairyanimalsparticularly Buffaloesascompared tothatofSheep.Fortheyears(2006-2016),PopulationofBuffaloesgrewmoreatan annual compound growthrateof2.715%,Goats2.5912%,Cattleat2.3971%,Camel2.1827%and Sheep0.65%.Livestock animalsCattle,Buffaloesand Camelsdisplayed differentgrowthrateswhileanimalsofsmallruminantsGoatsand Sheephavealsodifferentratesofgrowth.ThusBuffaloesand Goatsrevealed comparativelyhighgrowthratesover the10yearsperiod from(2006-2016),growth rateofcattlepopulationisalsosatisfactorywhileSheepandCamels recorded havingrelativelylowgrowth rate. In the livestock population ofabove said period of10 years sheep recorded verylowgrowthratebutdon’tshowthenegativegrowth rate.Growth rateofcamelsisnotsatisfactoryin largeruminants,howeverthegrowthrateofSheepandCamelsareexpected toberecovered fast.
Themainpurposeofthisstudyistofind outtheTrend and RateofGrowthofLivestock populationinSindhfrom year2006to2016.Onthebasisofempiricalstudyitisconcluded thatthepopulationofLivestock hadbecome stablymoreimportantin theeconomyofSindh andhaveapositiveimpacton ruralhouseholdfood securityand decreasing povertylevelsduringthelastten year.Itisconcluded thatPopulation ofBuffaloesandGoatsrecorded positiveTrendduringyears2006to2016,Goatspopulation hasshowed high trendofgrowth in allthefivekindsof livestock.Percentagedistribution ofBuffaloes,Cattleand Goatshasincreased butSheepandCamelsdecreased.The change in growth rate was duetohigh growth rate in the population of Goats as compared to Buffaloes. The Population of Buffaloes Cattle and Camels have displayed different growth rates. For the years (2006-2016) Buffaloesand Goatsshowed highgrowthrate,growthrateofCattlepopulationissatisfactory,Sheepandcamel recorded lowgrowthratewhichisexpected torecoverfast.ThereasonforSheephaving lowgrowthratethanGoats inSindh isSheepsurviveindryzoneshotorcold,whilegoatscansurvivein differing climaticconditions.The greaterprofitabilityofGoatsthan Sheepismainlyduetotworeasons:Numberofkidsbornbygoatsisdoubleas number kidsborn bysheep; value ofoutput per goat from milkishigher than valueofwool per sheep. Goats keepingareexpanding steadilywith poorerhouseholdsin Sindh andsheepkeepingistosmallnumberofhouseholds belongingtotraditionalshepherdclass. In Sindh thereislargenumberofhouseholdswhokeepmoreBuffaloesand Cattlesascompared toGoatsand Sheep. Averagehousehold farmerskeeping largenumberofbuffaloesand goatsascompared toCattle,Sheepand camels formilk andmeatproduction purpose.PercentageofCattlehousehold keepingbylargefarmersislowduetouseof modern technologyin agriculture,peopleshavesufficientincomefromtheiragriculturethereforetheydonothave need tokeepmilch animals. Therearemanyreasonsbehind thepoormanagementofdairyfarmers;intheruralareasofSindhdairyfarmershave notchannelofincreasingtheirprofitability.Onlyafewdairyfarmerskeeprecord ofincomeandexpenditure.Dairy farmershavenotapproach tomodern dairytechniquesand theyfacemanyconstraintsin milkmarketing.Dairy farmershaveneitheranyloan facilitynoranysubsidyortreatmentandvaccination facilityisavailable,mostofthe dairyfarmersarenotsatisfied bythisbusinessandaccording tothemdairyfarmingisverydifficultbusiness.Most oftheworkerswerenottrained theyhavealittleexperienceofand theydonottakeproperwages.Duetohigh cost ofmilkproductionshortageoffodderalsooccurswhichismaincauseofdecreaseinmilk productionand increase in milk price. Most of the dairy farmers are uneducated or less educated which is also amain cause of non-development of dairy sector in Sindh. Due to not having proper education dairy farmers can’t understand the importanceofkeepingrecordofincomeandexpenditurewhich isnecessaryfordairyfarmmanagement.Thereisa gapofcommunication betweengovernmentanddairyfarmmanagementstakeholders.
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